Ukraine: More than a religious schism

Published Date: April 02, 2008

According to Stratfor sources in the Kremlin, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and his brother Piotr Yushchenko allegedly are devising a plan to split Ukraine's Orthodox Church officially from the Moscow patriarch's authority, tearing it from Russia. The move would be one of the more controversial Ukraine has taken against its former Soviet Union partner and could spark a much larger crisis within Ukraine and with Russia.

The word "Ukraine" translates from Old Eastern Slavonic as "borderland," or "edge of the state," and that description could not be truer. Ukraine is the cornerstone for the West and Russia's platforms for expanding against each other and projecting their power internationally. But the country is caught between the West and Russia, with each trying to influence the current political situation. Still, much would need to be done to convert Ukraine's heart and soul to one side or the other. In fact, that simply might not be possible, and the tug-of-war could end up splitting Ukraine down the middle along ethnic and linguistic lines.

Since Viktor Yushchenko was elected during the 2004 pro-Western Orange Revolution, he has had difficulty cutting the ties binding half of Ukraine with Russia. Nearly 10 million - 20 percent - of Ukraine's population is ethnically Russian, and another 15 million are pro-Russian; thus, Ukraine has been at an impasse since the Orange Revolution, and that stalemate has kept the country in political, economic and social disarray.

In short, the country is divided over the issue of whether Ukraine should stay faithful to Moscow or turn toward the West. There is no doubt that Ukraine's ruling coalition - led by Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko - wants to move the country toward the West with EU and NATO membership; however intimidation by Russia has kept every Ukrainian leader since the breakup of the Soviet Union from fully breaking away from Moscow.

But this is where the fight over religion comes in, since more than 90 percent of the country is Orthodox. The Ukrainian Orthodoxy is actually two entities: the Ukrainian Orthodox Church under the Kiev Patriarchate (UOC-KP) and the autonomous Church of Eastern Orthodoxy in Ukraine (UOC), which is under the Moscow Patriarchate. The former is unrecognized by any other canonical Eastern Orthodox Church, accounts for only 21 percent of Ukraine's population and is found mainly in the central, southern and western parts of the country.

According to UOC statistics, 74 percent of the population - about 35 million people - belongs to the church under the Moscow Patriarchate, mainly in southern and eastern Ukraine. The church under the Moscow patriarchy has full international canonical standing and also owns most of the Orthodox churches and church properties in Ukraine.

Yushchenko has long made it public that he would like a unified Ukrainian Orthodox Church, but then that objective has been on the table since the fall of the Soviet Union. This was a major item of discussion during the president's visit to Moscow in February in which he met with Russian Orthodox Patriarch Alexei II - who is not only head of the Russian Orthodox Church but is also very close to Russian President Vladimir Putin and has allowed the church to once again become a tool for the Kremlin.

There is no doubt that the plan to try to split the UOC from the Moscow patriarch is Piotr Yushchenko's brainchild. He is one of his brother Viktor's closest advisers and considers himself one of Ukraine's religious leaders. He is Ukraine's parliamentary deputy, but he also has several ties with companies in the Middle East and Russia and with natural gas distribution companies in Europe. He is also the former co-owner of the First Investment Bank of Ukraine. The president reportedly listens intently to his brother on matters of faith, business and politics, though Piotr Yushchenko stays out of the direct limelight of Ukraine's complicated and chaotic political scene.

The issue of splitting the church is again at the front of Viktor Yushchenko's mind, but the timing is very specific; the president is considering the issue on the eve of not only U.S. President George W. Bush's visit to Kiev, but also a NATO summit at which the possibility of a Membership Action Plan for Ukraine will be discussed so that Kiev can launch the NATO membership process. But with Ukraine split between Russia and the West, any attempt to break Ukraine away from Russia could crack the country inhalf.

Moreover, every potential NATO member that has ever been behind the Iron Curtain has had to deal with separating their country from the Soviet (Russian) propaganda machine and intelligence infiltration left behind. Ukraine plays into this concern specifically since it is so closely tied to Russia. There is also the fact that Patriarch Alexei II - an ex-KGB agent - has been accused of using his churches abroad as hubs for placing spies in other countries.

This happened during the Soviet era, when the Communist party would place KGB members in the Orthodox churches in Soviet member states. In the current intelligence scenario, Ukraine reportedly is one of the largest such hubs. By ridding Ukraine of churches under the Moscow patriarch, the government would be in effect beheading a section of the Russian intelligence community. This would remove Ukraine from Russia's orbit and then move the country Westward - and these actions have to occur in this order to be successful.

This move could also create problems that could lead to major rifts in the former Soviet Union. First, the Ukrainian government is far from strong or stable enough to handle the backlash from splitting half the country from its religious center. The aftershocks could be enough to turn half of Ukraine's population away from the government altogether; more likely, it could lead the government to collapse.

Second, the FSB does not like losing one of its intelligence hubs, especially in a neighboring country that it is trying to keep tied to Moscow. With the FSB reorganizing and strengthening its ability to not only work aggressively inside of Russia but abroad, it could focus its attention more on Ukraine. Lastly, Moscow would see the act as a serious betrayal by Kiev. However, the Kremlin could take advantage of the instability to not only consolidate its control over the eastern half of Ukraine, but also collapse the Ukrainian government.

In the end, when it comes to trying to split a social foundation that has been a part of a region for more than a millennium, this sort of change is a potential country killer. This is why Viktor Yushchenko has yet to attempt such a drastic move. However, if Ukraine is ever going to successfully move toward the West, it will have to first cut some of its deepest ties with Russia. - Stratfor

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